Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 82.6%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
30 juil. 26, 13:44 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsWill the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de).
- In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.
- Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria