Prévision communautaire actuelle
Other 22.6%+10.1ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+10.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
14 sept. 26, 16:58 UTC21 oct. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiRègles
Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.
- Resolves N/A if Merz remains until then.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+12.0pt81.2%
- Yes-12.0pt18.8%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
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- D-House, D-Senate+3.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
- 675,8 k €
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- Karen Bass-2.0pt63%
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- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
- 642,6 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.5pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 résultats de plus
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
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- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 23% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? doit être résolu le 21 octobre 2029.
- Comment Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.