Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 73.1%
Prévisionnistes
90
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète18 août 23, 12:37 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketAfD in a German state government in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Will resolve YES if the AfD (Alternative for Germany) enters any federal or state government by the year 2030.
- Extensive polling data here: Neueste Wahlumfragen und Umfragewerte | DAWUM
- Related market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Symmetry/will-the-afd-still-exist-by-the-yea)
Marchés ouverts
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 494,6 k €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 809,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 123,4 k €
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 73% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will resolve YES if the AfD (Alternative for Germany) enters any federal or state government by the year 2030.