KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
AfD 77%En tête parmi 7 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
18,5 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
28 juil. 26, 16:23 UTC25 mars 30, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRègles
If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Bundeswahlausschuss
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option
- This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.
- See full rules for details.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Next German federal election winner? ?
- Kalshi cote AfD à 77% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Next German federal election winner? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Next German federal election winner? doit être résolu le 25 mars 2030.
- Comment Next German federal election winner? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.