Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffForeign Exchange3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 86%-1.0pt
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
11 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
13.0% / 16.0%
Écart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
4
Variation 7j
+2.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
3 déc. 25, 17:17 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
Manifold MarketsThe current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Manifold MarketsSmallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiEURUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
- A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
- If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
- If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
Marchés ouverts
Foreign ExchangeKALSHIUSD/JPY price on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 153.500 to 153.74979%
- 153.250 to 153.49938%
- 153.000 to 153.24928%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.6%
- SpaceX+0.5pt38.4%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIEURUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- Above 1.14199%
- Above 1.149+3.0pt99%
- Above 1.151+3.0pt98%
+17 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 21,9 k €
KALSHIEUR/USD price range on Sep 9, 2026 at 10am EDT?
- 1.16400 to 1.1659954.5%
- 1.16200 to 1.1639924.2%
- 1.16600 to 1.167996.1%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 5,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETUSD x Iranian rials End of September?
- 2.2M++10.0pt89.2%
- 2.1-2.2M-6.0pt4.9%
- 2.0-2.1M-2.1pt2%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUSD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes)
- 2.5 to 2.8M+35.0pt50.5%
- 2.2 to 2.5M-37.0pt27.7%
- 2.8 to 3.1M+6.9pt9.9%
+2 résultats de plus
- USD x Iranian rials End of December?
- What will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit in September 2026?
- AUDUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDJPY price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDMXN price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDBRL price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDCHF price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDCAD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- USDNOK price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- GBPUSD price on Sep 11 at 5:00 PM EDT
- Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 86% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.