Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

One-OffForeign Exchange6mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Oui 19%

Qualite du marche

49 / 100

Faible qualité

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidité

14,1 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Spread modéré

Variation 7j

-2.0%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes

3 déc. 25, 17:2631 déc. 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes19%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

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Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

One-OffForeign Exchange6mo

PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de frais

Probabilité implicite actuelle

Oui 19%

Qualite du marche

49 / 100

Faible qualité

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidité

14,1 k €

Liquidité moyenne

Achat / Vente

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Spread modéré

Variation 7j

-2.0%

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes

3 déc. 25, 17:2631 déc. 26, 0:00

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Yes19%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

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22,7 k €

Above 4%: 100%

POLYMARKET

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5,1 k €

Bangladesh: 44%

POLYMARKET

June Inflation US - Annual

2,8 k €

4.1%: 23%

POLYMARKET

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

334,3 €

Oui: 12%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?

291,1 €

It will be called “Claude Mythos” on release: 0%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Furthest Advancing Asian/Oceanic Nation

149,9 €

Japan: 35%

KALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,663.61+1.88%

EthereumETH$1,652.22+1.30%

SolanaSOL$65.11+0.89%

XRPXRP$1.12-0.32%

BNBBNB$595.32+1.32%

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.11%

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Règles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”