Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 86.4%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 58 minutes
En retard27 févr. 25, 10:06 UTC31 oct. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government?
KalshiWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013.
- In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
- This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
- The market resolves to NO if:
- The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
- The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election