KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 57%
Qualité du marché
55 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
595,5 €
Liquidité
661,4 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
40.0% / 44.0%
Écart
4.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
24 août 26, 21:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
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PolymarketRègles
If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe VergeAgence France-Presse
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.
- The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count A coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count
Comparaison des sources de prévision
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour AfD in a German state government in 2026? ?
- Kalshi cote No à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand AfD in a German state government in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- AfD in a German state government in 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment AfD in a German state government in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Où AfD in a German state government in 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.