Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 55.7%
Prévisionnistes
55
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
7 déc. 25, 19:57 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketAfD in a German state government in 2026?
KalshiWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSaxony-Anhalt 2026: How many more votes will Ulrich Siegmund get for State Prime Minister, relative to AfD's seats?
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).
- Resolves YES if AfD MPs vote for a winning candidate AND their votes are necessary for the candidate to win.
- Resolves NO if all State Prime Ministers elected in 2026 are elected without necessary AfD support.
- Scheduled 2026 state elections:
- Baden-Württemberg (8 March)
- Rhineland-Palatinate (22 March)
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
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- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves based on any State Prime Minister (Ministerpräsident) elections in German state parliaments in 2026, whether after scheduled state elections or otherwise (e.g., a state PM resigning).