Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 77.8%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète9 févr. 26, 15:14 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government in 2026?
KalshiWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Coalition next split before the next election?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament.
- Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September).
- The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.
- The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria