Alerte qualité des donnéesAucune cotation en direct
Données au 8 sept. 2026, 22:05 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Alice Weidel 15%En tête parmi 6 options
Qualité du marché
27 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
54,1 €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
9.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
24 août 26, 21:00 UTC26 août 29, 14:00 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWill Ed Miliband become Chancellor of the Exchequer before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government raise the sales tax before the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiRègles
If the named outcome becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Der Bundeswahlleiter
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity.
- A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, the named outcome resolves YES and every other market resolves NO If new elections are called before a government forms, the named outcome resolves YES immediately
- This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner.
- See full rules for details.
- For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.
Marchés ouverts
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? ?
- Kalshi cote Alice Weidel à 15% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? doit être résolu le 26 août 2029.
- Comment Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the named outcome becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.