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Données au 17 sept. 2026, 08:25 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Before Oct 1, 2026 0%En tête parmi 8 options
Qualité du marché
24 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
—
Liquidité inconnueÉcart
15.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
17 sept. 26, 04:00 UTC1 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWill Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRègles
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Federal Government of GermanyGerman BundestagOffice of the Federal Chancellor of GermanyReutersAssociated Press
- An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office.
- Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official.
- The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
- "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal.
- Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Oct 1, 2026 à 0% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.