Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 53.2%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète31 mars 23, 23:49 UTC30 nov. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
KalshiWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsMohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves when tagesschau.de announces that a new leader of the CDU has been officially elected
- Apr 1, 1:53am: German politics: Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU? → Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Marchés ouverts
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- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+0.7pt2%
+5 résultats de plus
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
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- Jean-Luc Mélenchon+0.5pt13.1%
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- AfD-1.6pt6%
+5 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- AfD-8.0pt75.3%
- SPD+9.0pt24.8%
- CDU0%
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POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December-9.0pt20%
- October-4.0pt13%
- September 30,-1.0pt5%
POLYMARKETBulgaria Presidential Election
- Iliana Iotova+1.0pt77.8%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 53% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU? doit être résolu le 30 novembre 2027.
- Comment Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves when tagesschau.de announces that a new leader of the CDU has been officially elected