Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 89.7%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète1 mars 24, 14:02 UTC1 janv. 31, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiHow many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
KalshiDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsRègles
resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-2.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)+1.6pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 26,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt16%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 613,1 M €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.7pt93%
- Yes+1.7pt7%
- Volume total
- 18,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 721,2 k €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 190,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 653,4 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt87%
- Republican Party-2.0pt13%
- Volume total
- 27,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 436,6 k €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-2.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.7pt16%
+48 résultats de plus
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 16 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030