Probabilité implicite actuelle
No Next Chancellor before 2028 54%+3.5ptEn tête parmi 13 options
Qualité du marché
73 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
3,7 k €
Liquidité
116,3 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
1
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
15 sept. 26, 21:29 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWill a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
PolymarketRègles
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
- This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President.
- Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “the named outcome”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.