FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 99%
Non 99%Qualité du marché
34 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,4 k €
Faible liquiditéTraders
35
Commentaires
3
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Russia attack Europe with military force?
Manifold MarketsWill a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump use military force to seize control of Greenland or the Panama Canal?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich leaders will leave office in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Tensions between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (a.k.a.
- Taiwan) have risen since 2016.
- If by December 31st, 2026, the People's Republic of China deploys military strength in an attempt to take control over the Taiwanese territory, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Only kinetic military action will be considered to resolve this market.
- Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and land armored vehicles deployment inside Taiwanese territory.
- The deployment of airships and warships to Taiwanese territories will only be taken into account if it causes structural damage or leads to a martial response, and each of such cases will be analyzed individually.