PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
Anthropic · —
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Referencia guardada
Anthropic 56%
Anthropic 56%Calidad del mercado
42 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
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Liquidez
367,6 €
Baja liquidezInterés abierto
281,3 US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
AnthropicSpread
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Comentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-4.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
18 sept 26, 16:42 UTC1 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
Estas condiciones son informativas; las operaciones simuladas de CoinRithm siguen sus propias reglas.
- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- Sí
Principales tenedores
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Profundidad de mercado · Anthropic
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so.
- This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so.
- If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
- A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.