Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore H2 2030 81.4%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado30 jul 25, 15:41 UTC30 jul 28, 15:31 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
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Manifold MarketsReglas
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.