When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
IAOne-Off8aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2035 78.8%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado30 jul 25, 15:46 UTC1 ene 35, 16:44 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2035 al 79% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Está previsto que When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus] se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As reported by OpenAI.