When will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
IAOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2035 78.8%Líder entre 10 opciones
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6
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
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Actualizado hace 19 horas
Desactualizado30 jul 25, 15:46 UTC1 ene 35, 16:44 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketWhen will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsReglas
As reported by OpenAI.
- For more detail about criteria, though they closely track the intuitive spirit of the question, see the excellent Metaculus question that is the source of this market:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/risk/38787/dates-that-openai-reports-an-ai-reached-these-self-improvement-risk-levels/
- Background info (from Metaculus):
- OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, version 2, from April 15th 2025, defines the AI Self-improvement risk category aimed at tracking:
- The ability of an AI system to accelerate AI research, including to increase the system’s own capability.