Pronóstico comunitario actual
Before Dec 2035 88.7%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado28 feb 26, 1:48 UTC1 ene 36, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Recursive self-improvement: a single AI system autonomously identifies modifications to its own training, architecture, or inference pipeline, implements them, and produces measurable capability gains (≥5% on standardized benchmark) — 3 sequential cycles with no human intervention between them.
- Human-designed "improvement menus" don't qualify; the system must identify the type of modification itself.
- Independently verified.
- Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
- Future Shock ensemble prediction: July 2027 (±6 months).
- Also submitted to Metaculus.
