PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPunto medio del libro seleccionado
December · —
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Referencia guardada
December 19%
December 19%Calidad del mercado
28 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
86,5 €
Liquidez
705,5 €
Baja liquidezInterés abierto
5,1 mil US$
Compra / Venta
— / —
DecemberSpread
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Comentarios
0
Cambio 7d
+1.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 minutos
18 sept 26, 23:59 UTC1 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
El gráfico y los cambios muestran probabilidades históricas guardadas, no el libro seleccionado en directo.
Tendencias
Fila seleccionada: punto medio del libro. Otras filas: referencias guardadas, posiblemente normalizadas; los cambios de 24h usan el historial guardado.
Condiciones de la plataforma
Fuente: Polymarket
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- Orden mínima (participaciones):
- 5
- Incremento de precio:
- 1 puntos porcentuales
- Comisiones:
- Sí
Principales tenedores
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Profundidad de mercado · December
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketSometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.
Manifold MarketsIf GPT-5 can do recursive self-improvement, will it first be via fine-tuning on its outputs?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a High risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsWhen will an OpenAI model achieve a Critical risk level on AI Self-improvement? [metaculus]
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements.
- Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution.
- Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
- También disponible en Kalshi — Will OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement? · Before Jan 1, 2029 66%
