Probabilidad implícita actual
No 99%
Calidad del mercado
≤49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
20,1 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
0.4% / 1.0%
Spread
0.6 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-1.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
10 jun 26, 16:29 UTC2 oct 26, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiChina’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 91 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 569,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 47,4 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 359,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 16,4 mil €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volumen total
- 314,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 9,5 mil €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Government shutdown by October 1??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 99% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Government shutdown by October 1??
- Está previsto que Government shutdown by October 1? se resuelva el 2 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Government shutdown by October 1??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- ¿Dónde más está listado Government shutdown by October 1??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Manifold Markets, Kalshi.