Probabilidad implícita actual
Sí 47%+0.1%
Calidad del mercado
40 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
3 mil €
Liquidez mediaCompra / Venta
40.0% / 54.0%
Spread
35.0%
Spread amplioDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 25 minutos
10 jun 26, 16:292 oct 26, 3:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Yes47%
Comparar plataformas· No
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMejor en general92% de coincidencia · auto | Alta | 53% | +6pt | 586,7 € | 25,6 mil € | hace 25 minutos | Abrir → |
 PolymarketEsta página | Baja | 53% | +6pt | 0 € | 3 mil € | hace 25 minutos |
También disponible en Kalshi
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
2.0%2m
53%
-2.0%47%
91 • Alta calidadSpread estrechoAlta liquidezAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total45,8 mil €
Volumen 24h586,7 €
KALSHIReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$69 jul10d de datos24 jul
Mercados Relacionados
2026: Trump's dream year?
1,8 mil €Sí: 5%KALSHI
KALSHI
If Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 election, what will the annualised GDP growth rate be over his term?
29,1 €0-1%: 6.1%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
3,7 €Shutdown & Democratic: 86%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
9,3 mil €Above 3.4%: 29%KALSHI
KALSHI
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
3,9 mil €0-1%: 56%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Recession this year?
3,2 mil €Sí: 10%KALSHI
KALSHIActivos en estos temas
Noticias Relacionadas
Polymarket Account in Farage Backer's Name Took $9M in Crypto From Unknown Sources: FTDecrypt
Polymarket odds lift Lula to 60.5% in Brazil race as Russia sanctions vote nearsBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds jump: US-Iran invasion risk hits 30.5% after tariff newsBlockchain.NewsPolymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.85% as voter-roll claims circulateBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds lift Le Pen to 31% in 2027 French election marketBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices Lula at 60.5% in Brazil race after +11pp jumpBlockchain.NewsReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
- A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
- A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
- Partial shutdowns qualify.