Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?
EconomíaOne-OffPolíticaPolítica de EE. UU.2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 70.8%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado13 may 26, 8:16 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if any part of the United States federal government shuts down due to a lapse in appropriations at any point before 12:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- A "shutdown" is defined as a formal cessation of non-essential government operations caused by the failure of Congress to pass, and the President to sign, necessary appropriations legislation (continuing resolutions or full-year budgets).
- Official confirmation from sources such as the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations or major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Bloomberg) confirming that federal agencies have initiated shutdown procedures will be used to resolve the market.
- If a shutdown occurs but is resolved within the same day without a significant disruption to non-essential services, the market will still resolve YES if an official lapse in appropriations was acknowledged by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).