Pronóstico comunitario actual
Feb 1 2026 100%Líder entre 13 opciones
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-40.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
24 ene 26, 22:4629 nov 26, 22:43
Tendencias
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Reglas
If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.
- Resolution will be based on whether a shutdown notice is visible on the OPM (Office of Personnel Management) site for at least part of a day.
- If a notice is visible on the OPM site for any portion of a given date, that date will resolve YES.
- Otherwise it will resolve NO.
- A shut down end will be determined by the date on which the funding package required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted.
- The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
Mercados abiertos
Politics
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio17%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 600,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 2,9 M €
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.7pt13%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 resultados más
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1094,6 M €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt53.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt42.7%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt1.9%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.5pt36.8%
- Édouard Philippe29.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+38 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom12.9%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 181 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 390,2 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de On which dates will the US government be shutdown??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Feb 1 2026 al 100% a fecha de 4 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve On which dates will the US government be shutdown??
- Está previsto que On which dates will the US government be shutdown? se resuelva el 29 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida On which dates will the US government be shutdown??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If the government is shut down for at least 1 minute on the listed date, Washington DC time, resolves yes for that date.