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  1. Mercados de Predicción
  2. Política
  3. Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?

PolíticaOne-OffEconomíaUS PoliticsElección3m
KalshiKalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisión
Probabilidad implícita actual
Sí
Sí 37%
Calidad del mercado

49 / 100

Baja calidad
Volumen 24h

2,5 €

Liquidez

3,6 €

Baja liquidez
Compra / Venta

36.0% / 37.0%

Spread

2.8%

Spread estrecho
Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 1 minuto

9 jun 26, 20:301 oct 26, 14:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Yes37%

Reglas

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations

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Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$62,664.91+2.34%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.60%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.74%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%BNBBNB$595.47+1.68%

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Reglas

If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
  • Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
  • OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
  • Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
  • A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations