KalshiComprobar disponibilidadKYC requerido2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aproximadaProbabilidad implícita actualSí 47%-2.0%
Calidad del mercado
91 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
586,7 €
Liquidez
25,6 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
47.0% / 48.0%
Spread
2.1%
Spread estrechoDatos de mercado
Actualizado hace 22 minutos
9 jun 26, 20:301 oct 26, 14:00
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Yes47%
Comparar plataformas· No
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMejor en general | Alta | 53% | +6pt | 586,7 € | 25,6 mil € | hace 22 minutos | |
 Polymarket92% de coincidencia · auto | Baja | 53% | +6pt | 0 € | 3 mil € | hace 22 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en Polymarket
Government shutdown by October 1?
6.0%2m
-0.1%53%
+0.1%47%
40 • Baja calidadSpread amplioLiquidez mediaAlta ambigüedad
Volumen total819,6 €
Volumen 24h0 €
POLYMARKETReglas
If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$6672 jul25d de datos26 jul
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If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable.
- Examples that would resolve the market to Yes:
- OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency"
- Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes:
- A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations Government closures or operating status changes resulting from Federal holidays, inclement weather, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations