Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 95.6%
Pronosticadores
587
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado2 jul 24, 10:02 UTC18 nov 26, 23:00 UTC
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketReglas
Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.
- The prediction resolves to yes if war is declared between 2 or more of the super powers before GTA 6's release.
- Edit: declaration may be implicit - 03/07/2024 Edit: human troops are not a must to meet requirements to this question's criteria - 30/01/2025 Edit: length of conflict is also not a must to meet requirements - 30/01/2025
- Edit: fixed a weird comment by the AI summary, sorry for the confusion it may have caused. - 05/04/2025 Edit: small clarification that if GTA is delayed, this question would follow - 05/04/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed to May 2026, thus this question will follow (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjew84ev3yyo) - 03/05/2025 Edit: GTA has been delayed again to November 2026 (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwypgvd9j8qo) - 12/11/2025
- Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Development of Fully Mechanized Armies: The emergence of fully mechanized military forces (e.g., AI-driven drones, autonomous weapons systems) could enable a new form of direct conflict.
- In such a scenario, nations might be able to shield their populations in bunkers while launching large-scale, all-out attacks on their adversaries.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
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- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
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- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de ¿Ocurrirá la 3ª Guerra Mundial antes que GTA6??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve ¿Ocurrirá la 3ª Guerra Mundial antes que GTA6??
- Está previsto que ¿Ocurrirá la 3ª Guerra Mundial antes que GTA6? se resuelva el 18 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida ¿Ocurrirá la 3ª Guerra Mundial antes que GTA6??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Do you think the third World War will occur before the much-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6? Share your thoughts and predictions in this poll.