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Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?

GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / Ukraine Europe3m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 53.7%

Pronosticadores

20

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 horas

Desactualizado

2 ago 26, 16:02 UTC1 ene 27, 3:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if at least one Ukrainian drone—including uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) or uncrewed surface vessels (USVs)—impacts, crashes, or explodes on the land territory or within the territorial waters of the Kaliningrad Oblast before the active armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends.
This includes drones that are intercepted or shot down by Russian air defenses but whose debris subsequently crashes on Kaliningrad territory.
"Before the war is over" is defined as prior to the official implementation of a mutually recognized ceasefire, the signing of a bilateral peace treaty, or the formal conclusion of the active military conflict between Russia and Ukraine as widely reported by credible international consensus.
If the war concludes without any Ukrainian drone making physical contact with Kaliningrad territory, this market resolves to NO.
Preemptive measures, such as the declaration of "drone threats," airspace closures, or GPS spoofing, do not qualify as a "hit" unless physical impact or debris contact on Kaliningrad territory is confirmed.

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Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over??: Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 54% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over??: Está previsto que Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
¿Cómo se liquida Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria

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