Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffTecnologíaRussia / Ukraine1mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89.4%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado24 ago 26, 9:30 UTC31 oct 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup).
- Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856):
- [image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months.
- If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by December 1st, this resolves NA
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026??
- Está previsto que Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026? se resuelva el 31 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup).