Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 90.7%
Pronosticadores
86
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
21 oct 22, 5:26 UTC21 oct 26, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a US plane/helicopter get shot down by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
PolymarketReglas
The spirit of the question is whether there occurs some singular event that directly causes multiple major AI capabilities organizations to simultaneously sharply change direction and focus substantially more effort on AI alignment.
- It is not intended to include multiple smaller events that cause cumulative changes in attitudes, or multiple events that only cause single organizations to change course.
- It is also not intended to restrict to only warning shots that successfully cause coordination across all AGI labs; even if only a small subset of (but more than 2) labs pivot sharply, this question resolves Yes.
- A warning shot is an event that demonstrates compellingly that alignment considerations should be taken more seriously, typically a catastrophic failure or a compelling demonstration of the possibility of dangerous failure.
- In particular, it should include at least two of the following organizations:
- Meta AI Research
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 91% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026??
- Está previsto que Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026? se resuelva el 21 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The spirit of the question is whether there occurs some singular event that directly causes multiple major AI capabilities organizations to simultaneously sharply change direction and focus substantially more effort on AI alignment.