Will the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?
ChinaGeopolíticaOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 24 oct 2026, 13:31 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 59.5%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado27 jun 24, 7:28 UTC14 ene 28, 12:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Paramount leader of the People's Republic of China after Xi Jinping?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketReglas
China currently has a second strike nuclear posture, meaning it is not prepared to launch on warning of incoming missiles.
- Instead it has most of its nuclear warheads in storage, with a focus on survivability for a second strike.
- This market will resolve YES if at any point before 2027 China adopts a ‘launch on warning’ doctrine.
- For clarity, the ability to shift to a launch-on-warning posture during heightened tensions will not count unless such a shift actually occurs.
- The following may help in forming a view:
- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/china-nuclear-missiles.html
