Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
0.8% (24h)AirdropIATecnologíaYearlyChina5m
PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableProbabilidad implícita actual#10 96%-0.8%Líder entre 4 opciones
Calidad del mercado
91 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
627,7 €
Liquidez
36,5 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
95.9% / 96.5%
Spread
0.6%
Spread estrechoCambio 7d
-2.5%
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 minutos
2 abr 26, 21:5731 dic 26, 0:00
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
#1096%
Comparar plataformas· #10
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketEsta páginaMejor en general | Alta | 96% | — | 627,7 € | 36,5 mil € | hace 17 minutos | |
 Kalshi82% de coincidencia · verificado | Alta | 83% | — | 278,8 € | 33,6 mil € | hace 17 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en Kalshi
Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?
2.0%5m
83%
-2.0%17%
80 • Alta calidadSpread moderadoAlta liquidez
Volumen total98,6 mil €
Volumen 24h278,8 €
KALSHIReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$7143 jul24d de datos26 jul
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.
- Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
- Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time.
- This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify.