Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 67.8%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 19 horas
Desactualizado30 ago 26, 17:19 UTC29 ago 28, 23:59 UTC
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Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Nate Soares and Ajeya Cotra say that the Hugging Face hack might have been our last warning shot.
- Reasons this might resolve yes:
- Nate Soares calling something else a warning shot
- Ajeya Cotra calling something else a warning shot
- Either of them say they were wrong
- Something that's "bigger" than the Hugging Face hack and contained by humans
Mercados abiertos
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 68% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028??
- Está previsto que Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028? se resuelva el 29 de agosto de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will we get another warning shot before August 30, 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Nate Soares and Ajeya Cotra say that the Hugging Face hack might have been our last warning shot.