Will the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
GeopolíticaOne-OffTecnologíaChina
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 66.2%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 59 minutos
Retrasado13 jul 26, 9:29 UTC1 ene 50, 10:26 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsDemocratic country implements digital curfew for minors before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
FutuurWill China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the United States government has organized, funded, or directly participated in a large-scale airlift of semiconductors or semiconductor wafers from Taiwan in response to a Chinese blockade, attempted blockade, or imminent blockade before January 1st 2050.
- “Large-scale airlift” means an exceptional evacuation effort involving multiple dedicated flights or a clearly coordinated operation intended to move a substantial quantity of strategically important chips out of Taiwan.
- Routine commercial shipments, isolated cargo flights, personnel evacuations carrying incidental chip cargo, or unconfirmed contingency plans do not count.
- A “blockade” includes a sustained Chinese military or coercive operation that materially restricts maritime or air access to Taiwan, even if China describes it using different terminology.
- A brief military exercise or temporary shipping disruption does not count unless reliable evidence indicates it functioned as an actual blockade.
- Evidence should come from credible reporting, official statements, flight or shipping records, company disclosures, or other independently verifiable sources.