PolymarketComprobar disponibilidadSin KYC2% de comisiónDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoProbabilidad implícita actual
No 96%+0.1pt
Calidad del mercado
77 / 100
Alta calidadVolumen 24h
1 mil €
Liquidez
47,6 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venta
4.0% / 4.8%
Spread
0.8 pt
Spread estrechoComentarios
0
Cambio 7d
-0.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 minutos
29 may 26, 13:14 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...? [Polymarket]
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PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
LimitlessReglas
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.
- A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.
- The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026??
- Polymarket cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- ¿Dónde más está listado Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026??
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Futuur.