Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 58.8%
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC21 ene 30, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US enter a recession in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2026?
ForecastExWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExReglas
Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term.
- A recession is defined as EITHER i) 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP is negative OR ii) a recession of at least 6 months in length is declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- This will be at any time during Trump's term, so if the two quarter or 6 months occurs at any time up to January 20, 2029.
- Estimates and NBER declarations can lag up to a year, so if it doesn't occur beforehand and there is any possibility or debate of it occurring at the end of the term, will allow for up to a year after inauguration for declaration.
- If any estimates are revised, the initial ones are what will count (so we don't have to adjust payouts).
- Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that BEA data will be considered the "official" source for GDP estimates.
Mercados abiertos
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,8 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 548,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 29,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 17,7 mil €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volumen total
- 310,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,5 mil €
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 59% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term??
- Está previsto que Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term? se resuelva el 21 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will resolve "yes" if a recession at any time during Trump's second term.