WIll the United States Economy enter a recession by 2030?
One-OffEconomíaPolítica comercialPolítica de EE. UU.3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 16:20 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 74.3%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado12 ene 26, 2:08 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declares that a recession occurred at any point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2029.
- A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
- The NBER's approach is retrospective and may take several months to announce official peak and trough dates.
- The market resolves NO if no recession is declared by the NBER by the end of 2030.
- Resolution source: NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee
