Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.1%
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado17 jun 26, 21:25 UTC2 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if the U.S. military attacks Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what counts as a military attack for resolution purposes:
- Counts (YES): Limited drone or missile strike, sustained bombing, full invasion
- Does NOT count (NO): Covert operatives conducting sabotage/assassination/kidnapping, or arming/directing a proxy group — unless done overtly under the US banner, or they lead to open war
Mercados abiertos
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75.5%
- New People (NL)-4.0pt21.4%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.5pt2%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 423,4 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.1%
- October 31-1.0pt28.5%
- September 30-1.0pt13%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 95,4 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA-0.1pt7%
- International Court of Justice+1.1pt6%
+17 resultados más
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections??
- Está previsto que Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections? se resuelva el 2 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if the U.S. military attacks Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026.