Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado12 sept 23, 10:06 UTC1 ene 31, 20:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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ForecastExWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketReglas
The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.
- The meltdown should be bad enough to require the shutdown of the reactor.
- It would not necessarily lead to the release of radioactive material (the meltdown could be fully contained).
- The market resolves as NO if no such accident occured.
- Voluntary meltdown of fuel assemblies for research purposes in small research facilities are excluded.
- Only power plants are considered, submarine/ship reactors are excluded.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+4.0pt77%
- September 18+4.0pt72%
- September 11+8.0pt67%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 512,6 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-0.8pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt50.4%
- October 31-2.5pt27.8%
- September 30-1.0pt12.2%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt84.2%
- Yes-5.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 9,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 266,5 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 56,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 170,4 mil €
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 85% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030??
- Está previsto que Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The market resolves as YES if a nuclear power plant used primarily for electricity production has at least a partial meltdown (as in Three Miles Island) before the end of 2030.