Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?
GeopolíticaOne-Off7aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.8%
Pronosticadores
92
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado11 jun 23, 5:42 UTC1 mar 34, 12:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
This market is an attempt to formalise @AlyssaVance's prediction that:
- Over the next decade, it is quite likely that most democratic Western countries will become fascist dictatorships
- Which she argues the case for in her Less Wrong post, The Dictatorship Problem.
- This market may not perfectly match Alyssa's intended prediction, and I invite her to clarify whether she would price this market at >50% based on her views.
- However, I will resolve this market based on its stated criteria, regardless of how well it turns out to match what Alyssa was going for.
- For the purposes of this market:
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 363 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volumen total
- 9,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 245,5 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 301%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 62,8 M €
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
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- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034??
- Está previsto que Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034? se resuelva el 1 de marzo de 2034.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market is an attempt to formalise @AlyssaVance's prediction that: