Will Donald Trump remain de facto leader of the United States beyond the end of his second term?
One-OffPolítica de EE. UU.PolíticaElecciónGeopolítica2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado6 nov 24, 15:21 UTC21 ene 29, 7:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Lots of possible edge cases here so this is going to be a judgement call to some extent.
- But here are some examples which may clarify the intent:
- Resolves yes if:
- There is a constitutional amendment allowing Trump to have a third term as President
- Trump dissolves the office of President and functionally becomes dictator-for-life
- Someone else is elected President on a platform of "doing exactly what Trump says" and effectively becomes a figurehead for Trump.