Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
One-OffCrimen y justicia3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 94.7%
No 94.7%Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado21 nov 22, 15:40 UTC1 ene 30, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will I be published in a major news outlet by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations
Manifold MarketsWill the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?
Manifold MarketsWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
PolymarketMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketReglas
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
- The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable".
- And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
- I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
