Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
One-OffCrime & Justice3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 94.7%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado21 nov 22, 15:40 UTC1 ene 30, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
Manifold MarketsReglas
It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.
- The allegation must be specific, like "I was attacked on [date] at [place]", it can't be "I heard a rumor that Scott once did something that made someone uncomfortable".
- And the alleged behavior must actually be a felony if it were to be proven in court, it can't just be "a bad thing".
- I'll be broad with what counts as a "mainstream news outlet", it just can't be "a blog post from someone with 18 readers", or infowars.
- This is part of a group of markets on Scott Alexander with slightly different resolution criteria, made with the intention of figuring out which structure is best.
- For an overview and discussion, see here.
Mercados abiertos
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+4.5pt65%
- Yes-4.5pt35%
- Volumen total
- 347,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 27,4 mil €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Volumen total
- 497,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,5 mil €
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+2.0pt83.2%
- No-2.0pt16.8%
- Volumen total
- 676 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 8,2 mil €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volumen total
- 9,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,6 mil €
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Volumen total
- 577,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 3,7 mil €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 resultados más
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: It doesn't need to be a formal charge of a crime, it could also be something like a sexual assault allegation.