Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 oct 2026, 13:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 82.4%
Pronosticadores
108
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado ayer
Desactualizado20 nov 22, 20:12 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
In April 2022, Eliezer Yudkowsky published Less Wrong post entitled MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy.
- The post declared, in a kidding-not-kidding style, that humanity would not solve the alignment problem, and humanity would soon be extinguished by unfriendly AI.
- This option will resolve as "yes" if Scott Alexander publishes a post in a similar vein, namely
- The post declares that humanity is doomed, and that doom will be coming quickly
- The post is written either earnestly, or it is written in a style that leaves the reader uncomfortably unsure if Alexander is earnest.
- Themes of doom and futility should be a central conciet of the post.
