Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.2%
Pronosticadores
27
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado18 dic 22, 5:02 UTC31 dic 29, 5:00 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
- Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors.
- Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.
