Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 95.2%
Pronosticadores
27
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado18 dic 22, 5:02 UTC31 dic 29, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will have a strongly negative opinion of Scott Alexander?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be the subject of a public scandal within his social circle before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiSinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by which date?
PolymarketKanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- arrest in any country can count.
- Any reason for the arrest can count, including minor misdemeanors.
- Arrests count even if the case is later dismissed, or charges are dropped.
Mercados abiertos
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+4.5pt65%
- Yes-4.5pt35%
- Volumen total
- 347,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 27,4 mil €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Volumen total
- 497,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,5 mil €
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+2.0pt83.2%
- No-2.0pt16.8%
- Volumen total
- 676 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 8,2 mil €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volumen total
- 9,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,6 mil €
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No84%
- Yes-1.0pt16%
- Volumen total
- 577,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 3,7 mil €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 resultados más
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
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- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or a police file, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been arrested by police.