Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Crimen y justiciaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.2%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 59 minutos
Retrasado4 dic 22, 17:14 UTC31 dic 29, 5:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
