Will nuclear war cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?
GeopolíticaOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 85.6%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado21 jul 23, 0:35 UTC2 ene 00, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This question will resolve as Yes if the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less, and the cause is principally due to nuclear weapons.
- Years are here defined as consecutive calendar years.
- I.e. resolves YES if both of the following resolve YES:
- https://manifold.markets/jack/global-catastrophe-series-by-2100-w and
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/
