¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 85% a fecha de 8 de octubre de 2026.

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 85%

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binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

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Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 2 horas

Desactualizado

23 dic 23, 18:30 UTC1 ene 31, 22:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidad

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This market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2030, evidence of extraterrestrial life is presented, meeting these criteria:

Publication in a Recognized Scientific Journal: The evidence must be detailed in a peer-reviewed article in a high-impact scientific journal of significant academic standing.
Fields pertinent to this evidence include astronomy and astrobiology, among others.
Journals like 'Nature' and 'Science' are ideal, but other journals of comparable standing are also acceptable.
Confirmation by Space Exploration Authorities: The evidence must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two reputable space exploration agencies or governmental bodies.
Potential agencies include, but are not limited to, NASA (United States), ESA (European Space Agency), Roscosmos (Russia), CNSA (China National Space Administration), or ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation).