Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
GeopolíticaOne-OffChinaIA1m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 95.4%
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Actualizado hace 42 minutos
24 feb 26, 9:51 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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- > Resolves YES if either of the following occurs by December 31, 2026:
- > AI Chip Sanctions Lifted: The US officially removes export controls on current-generation, high-performance AI chips (e.g., top-tier data center GPUs) to China.
- Minor exceptions for legacy chips do not count.
- > Co-Developed Frontier LLM: Major US and Chinese entities (state or private sector) formally announce a joint venture or partnership to co-develop a frontier Large Language Model.
- Informal, ad-hoc open-source contributions do not count.