Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?
GeopolíticaCustomIATecnología1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 83.1%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado4 jun 23, 12:37 UTC1 dic 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Before the end of 2027, will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets (as appearing in the Manifold Market search for that phrase) be above 50%, at the same time, for at least a week?
- This does not include derivative markets such as "Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?"
- Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - Conditional markets (e.g., "if there is a war between AI and humans with at least x billion human deaths, will AI wipe out humanity") do not count towards the resolution criteria.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- *Please note that the "AI summary of creator comment" is the exact opposite of my comment.
- The resolution criteria may soon be edited, but not like that.
