Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 56.8%
Pronosticadores
35
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado17 jun 24, 9:01 UTC1 ene 70, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
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PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/20588)Resolution Criteria
- For the purposes of this question, "Western" countries will be defined as the following:
- Austria Belgium Canada Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United States of America Australia New Zealand
- For the purpose of this question, "engage in a war" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:
- One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.
Mercados abiertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 470,8 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 57% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070??
- Está previsto que Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2070.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.