Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 91.9%
Pronosticadores
28
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado31 may 23, 16:57 UTC31 dic 30, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market resolves YES if any US state achieves practical independence from the United States, meeting all of the following criteria for at least one continuous year:
- The state’s government formally declares independence from the United States.
- The state ceases participation in US federal elections.
- The state government no longer recognizes the authority of US federal courts, agencies, or law enforcement.
- The state’s government collects taxes and controls its own borders without federal enforcement or interference.
- The state maintains a functioning government that provides essential services, including law enforcement and a court system, independently of the US federal government.
Mercados abiertos
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 22,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 581,3 mil €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volumen total
- 55,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 96,8 mil €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any US state secede before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any US state secede before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will any US state secede before 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any US state secede before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if any US state achieves practical independence from the United States, meeting all of the following criteria for at least one continuous year: