Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 81.2%
Pronosticadores
54
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado22 dic 23, 14:22 UTC1 ene 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich UBI policy will be adopted after mass unemployment due to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiReglas
To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...
- If major media outlets are saying unemployment has risen to over 25% (I believe that was roughly how bad things got in the American Great Depression?) and unequivocally state that AI is the primary cause, then we got a winner!
Mercados abiertos
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 90,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 358,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 35,8 mil €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 548,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 29,8 mil €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,7 mil €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 17,7 mil €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volumen total
- 310,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,5 mil €
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 81% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Está previsto que Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: To resolve, I'll take direction from the consensus of the mainstream media...